The BC River Forecast Centre says it’s too early to tell if the Prince George area is at risk of flooding this spring due to the amount of snow that’s fallen in February.
The snowpack levels near the Upper Fraser River has seen a bit of a change since February 1st according to Dave Campbell.
“We saw between 90 and 100% along the Upper Fraser River upstream of Prince George and just looking at the automated weather stations that we have up around that area since the start of February we have seen those numbers jump around 10%.”
“Individual storms can be quite dramatic and significant in terms of adding extra storage into that snowpack and that kind of comes out in the numbers, that upswing of about 10% is coming from those larger snow events.”
They are expecting the area to be 100 to 110% of normal for this time of year when they issue their March update.
As for the flooding, Campbell says it will depend on how the snow melts between next month and April.
Even with the increased snow, they’re not pushing the panic button just yet.
“Is the snow going to melt off quickly or are we going to see any rain or that sort of thing and certainly we always caution that flooding is a possibility and with the way, things are shaping up right now in terms of the risk, I think the near-normal snowpack on spring flooding should be normal,” added Campbell.
The recent winter storm has pretty much put the outlook on its ear, similar to what the River Forecast Centre saw last year in the Okanagan.
“Last year, for example, there might have been a two month period where we went from 78% of normal to about 130% in about a two-month span and it’s a much different story when you’re thinking very low risk and not a lot of water expected and then a couple storms really changed the picture, we even saw that this year in the southwest where you saw a third of the overall snowpack come in a matter of a few days through rainfall and over a metre of snow. The dramatic changes are certainly something we’re concerned about as we go through the tail end of the season and sometimes you can have those late-season storms that can change the outlook.”
Campbell says there April forecast will be the most crucial as we see a much more noticeable difference in the weather pattern as the snow begins to melt.